DNN Releases November 2012 Power Rankings

FOLLOW:

With the big 12-team WFTDA Championships dance starting in Atlanta tomorrow afternoon, we’re taking stock of how the fallout from the 4 regional playoffs affected the top 25 landscape in the past couple of months with our second-to-last Power Rankings release of the year.

Sept / October 2012 Hits (53)

(23) Tampa 277, Ft. Myers 54
(4) Philly 276, Columbia 116
(17) Naptown 187, (18) Detroit 156
(7) Windy City 315, Brewcity 76
(10) Minnesota 202, Madison 125
(18) Detroit 174, Chicago Outfit 58
(16) Arch Rival 252, Cincinnati 102
(7) Windy City 187, (24) Ohio 135
(10) Minnesota 283, (17) Naptown 86
(18) Detroit 204, Madison 116
(13) Montreal 332, Rideau Valley 46
(18) Detroit 222, Brewcity 61
(17) Naptown 222, (24) Ohio 86
(7) Windy City 165, (10) Minnesota 153
(2) Oly 157, (9) Rocky Mountain 92
(4) Rose City 194, Angel City 147
(3) Denver 339, Sacred City 86
(5) Bay Area 229, (6) Rat City 177
(9) Rocky Mountain 279, Arizona 76
(6) Rat City 244, Wasatch 172
(2) Oly 188, (4) Rose City 121*
(9) Rocky Mountain 172, Angel City 126
(6) Rat City 243, Sacred City 115
(3) Denver 187, (5) Bay Area 167
(6) Rat City 196, (9) Rocky Mountain 171*
(2) Oly 168, (3) Denver 161*
(8) Philly 393, Berlin 91
(22) Carolina 204, Dutchland 75
(20) Boston 226, DC 131
(1) Gotham 437, (22) Carolina 8
(12) Charm City 263, (15) Steel City 214
(8) Philly 229, (20) Boston 110
(13) Montreal 413, Dutchland 98
(1) Gotham 283, (12) Charm City 86
(8) Philly 179, (14) London 144
(13) Montreal 225, (20) Boston 116
(15) Steel City 476, Dutchland 107
(20) Boston 156, (22) Carolina 128
(13) Montreal 252, DC 112
(12) Charm City 183, (14) London 159
(1) Gotham 232, (8) Philly 107
(23) Tampa 154, Nashville 109
(21) Atlanta 165, (25) Houston 104*
(11) Texas 375, Omaha 72
(19) Kansas City 171, No Coast 130
(11) Texas 249, (23) Tampa 98
(18) Detroit 248, Killamazoo 112
(25) Houston 255, Jacksonville 155
(19) Kansas City 209, (23) Tampa 168
(11) Texas 144, (21) Atlanta 124
(18) Detroit 159, (24) Ohio 129*
(5) Bay Area 281, Sacred City 52
(7) Windy City 238, (17) Naptown 118 (unsanctioned)

Sept / October 2012 Misses (10)

(13) Kansas City 240, (10) Minnesota 148 (unsanctioned)
(24) Ohio 142, (16) Arch Rival 132***
Brewcity 126, (16) Arch Rival 123***
Madison 217, (16) Arch Rival 119***
(5) Bay Area 135, (4) Rose City 123***
(14) London 191, (13) Montreal 122***
DC 239, (15) Steel City 223***
DC 210, (22) Carolina 179***
Tallahassee 230, (25) Houston 194***
(21) Atlanta 192, (19) Kansas City 122***

2012 Totals: 201 hits, 39 misses

2012 Accuracy: 83%

*DNN hit, WFTDA miss
**WFTDA hit, DNN miss
***Both rankings miss

It was a hugely busy period, with 63 bouts involving at least one Power Ranked team, but we stayed at about our average accuracy with the rankings predicting the correct winner in 84 percent of the games (53). We did have a better than usual month in games where the quarterly WFTDA rankings and monthly DNN rankings predicted different outcomes: DNN hit on Rat City defeating Rocky Mountain, Oly defeating Denver and Rose City, Atlanta defeating Houston, and Detroit defeating Ohio. There were no games in the past two months where the WFTDA rankings hit but DNN missed, and there were 9 games in which both rankings missed.

That brings our year long tally to a new total:

DNN hit, WFTDA miss: 8
WFTDA hit, DNN miss: 1
Both rankings miss: 19

Read on for quick general highlights and notes on Sept/Oct activity, or jump to the team-by-team Power Rankings chart.

Top Ten Movement

The top ten look pretty much the same as before the playoffs, with the major change being Rose City continuing their yo-yo from top 5 to high teens based around their jammer situation. The retirements of Soulfearic Acid and White Flight, announced after the West playoffs, seem likely to hamper them in the near future based on their midseason trouble without them. That lets most of the other teams in the top ten inch up one or two slots.

London, Atlanta Rising

Three very strong games from London at the East playoffs demonstrated that LRG had only improved during a long year in which they got very few chances to prove themselves against high-level competition; they’re at their highest ranking yet at #11.

Likewise, Atlanta was extraordinarily successful at their playoff tournament and pick up the biggest jump for this ranking with a 7 slot rise to #14, just behind Texas.

Consolations and Outliers

One of the curious things we noted in putting together this ranking was that consolation bouts in tournaments often had dramatically different results than advancement bouts — particularly those for Arch Rival and Steel City, who lost shockers to bottom-seeded teams after nearly winning their opening games against tougher opponents. Houston tanked in a big way against Tallahassee after losing a tough battle against much stronger Atlanta. Less dramatically, Angel City also put up an impressively close loss against the likes of Rocky Mountain.

It’s hard to objectively quantify the interplay of factors going on here, but it seems that teams that feel they have a good shot at finishing top-three but lose their first game are especially ripe pickings for teams that came into the tournament with no expectations of making it to Championships. Sometimes this involves roster changes to give benchwarmers a chance to play, but not always; for example, the Steel City roster that lost to DC was the exact same roster that took Charm deep the previous day.

Taking all that into account, it seems likely that — counterintuitive as it seems on its face — tournament consolation games are not necessarily the best predictor of future performance. On that reasoning we rank Steel City (#15) ahead of DC (#21) and Arch Rival (#24) ahead of Brewcity; however, Madison (#23) does go over Arch Rival based on the convincing 98 point margin they put up.

Teams We’re Watching

Bear City (Berlin, Germany). The stateside visit from Germany’s first WFTDA league happened right as the playoffs began (and also before DC’s unexpected wins at the East playoffs), so their 17 point win over DC didn’t get very widely noticed. Philly bashed them by 303 points the next weekend, but we’re looking forward to seeing more data against teams around Bear City’s level; they could very well become the second European team to qualify for WFTDA playoffs next year.

Sacred City, Angel City, and Wasatch. Incredibly close games between these three teams (4 point and 10 point games between Angel City and Wasatch; 1 point and 6 point games between Sacred and Angel City) mean this clump is likely going to be battling for supremacy amongst themselves for awhile.

Tampa. Dropped off from #23 after the playoffs, but they did manage to stay even with both Texas and Kansas City for about half a game each before fading in the remaining time.

If you’ve got something to politely say, pipe up now over in the Power Rankings thread — the 2012 WFTDA Championships start in just 16 hours!

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