DNN Releases January 2012 Power Rankings


Welcome to 2012! It’s a brand new year of skating in circles and complaining on the Internet as we release our January 2012 Power Rankings.

With the majority of the standings fairly static from our post-Regionals release through Championships, we decided to take a slightly different focus than usual this month, and thought we’d take the relative downtime of the off-season to provide a broad-based look at the history of our Power Rankings. You’ll find that article over here, but let’s wrap up the final housekeeping from 2011 first.

November / December Hits (17)

(3) Rocky Mountain 198, (19) Nashville 58
(11) Philly 225, (14) Naptown 68
(8) Texas 141, (13) Minnesota 108
(1) Gotham 187, (3) Rocky Mountain 139
(9) Kansas City 112, (10) Windy City 95
(2) Oly 181, (11) Philly 95
(1) Gotham 195, (8) Texas 113
(2) Oly 124, (9) Kansas City 104
(17) London 307, Sioux Falls 19
(8) Texas 136, (9) Kansas City 112
(1) Gotham 140, (2) Oly 97
(21) Carolina 210, Cape Fear 55
(5) Rat City 226, Victorian 87
(14) Naptown 191, Ohio Gang Green 41
(5) Rat City 232, Sun State 56
(5) Rat City 336, Northern Brisbane 71
(14) Naptown 266, Toronto 67

November / December Misses (2)

(13) Minnesota 160, (12) Charm City 121
(9) Kansas City 143, (4) Rose City 135

2011 Totals: 231 hits, 35 misses

2011 Accuracy: 87%

In this month’s Power Ranking release, the only significant movement is from Texas and Kansas City, who turn their 3rd and 4th place finishes at the 2011 WFTDA Championships into DNN ranks #4 and #5 (Rocky Mountain continues to hold on to DNN #3, as they gave #1 Gotham an arguably harder time during Championships than #2 Oly gave them in the finale.) Other than that, the only change since Regionals is new #12 Minnesota swapping spaces with new #13 Charm City following Minnesota’s head-to-head win at Championships.

In November and December, the DNN Power Rankings correctly projected the winner in 17 out of 19 games involving at least one Power Ranked team, for an accuracy percentage of 89%. This brings us to 231 hits and 35 misses for the entirety of 2011, a year-long accuracy percentage of 87%. By way of comparison, 2010 was 189-38 for an accuracy percentage of 83% and 2009 was 145-35 for 80%, so we’re getting better at this … and also, top-25 teams are playing a hell of a lot more roller derby than they were just two years ago.

This year, we tracked a new stat for the first time in an attempt to determine whether or not DNN’s worldwide Power Rankings were actually any more useful for predictive purposes than WFTDA’s official regional rankings. As it turned out, there were no games in November or December in which DNN and WFTDA rankings predicted different winners, so our data from November stands as the final data for the year:

DNN hit, WFTDA miss: 9
WFTDA hit, DNN miss: 4
Both rankings miss: 16

Have you something to say about this month’s release? Superb! Hustle on over to the Power Rankings thread and go right ahead! Also, make sure to check out our analysis of our first three years at this in Power Rankings: By the Numbers.

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